I am currently visiting the Department of Economics at UPenn as a Senior Fellow. I am a Beatriz Galindo Senior Research Professor in Economics at Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona (UAB), an Affiliated Professor at the Barcelona School of Economics (BSE) and a Research Fellow at the CEPR. My CV is here [.pdf] and my current research below.
My permanent address is: Plaça Civica s/n, Bellaterra, Barcelona 08193, Spain.
E-mail me to: rauls[at]econ.upenn.edu or rauls[at]movebarcelona.eu
'Excess of Transfer Progressivity in the Village', with Francesco Carli and Albert Rodriguez-Sala
With primary data from a complete village in Malawi we find that the level of transfer progressivity is large. The solution to a village-calibrated OLG model with limited commitment and private information implies an optimal level of transfer progressivity that is one third that of the village data. Interistingly, the current transfer progressiviy turns out to be close to optimal in a "pre-fertilizer era". We rationalize our findings with social norms (a wedge on participation constraints) that are sluggish to economic change.
'Progressivity and Development', with Leandro de Magalhaes and Enric Martorell
Adding formal and informal transfers, we show that transfer progressivity in poor countries is four times larger than in rich countries. We quantitatively assess the implications of transfer progressivity for cross-country income per capita differences and dicuss its optimality across stages of development.
'Resilient Kaldor: Growth Facts with Intellectual Property Products Capital', with Sangmin Aum and Dongya Koh
The long-run growth facts in Kaldor (1957) stand strong after all.
A new method to evaluate policy is proposed. Our method entails a stage-based pre-policy normalization of outcomes. Nationwide policy (i.e. implemented at the same time across regions) can be assessed using our method. We show several applications including stay-home policies (e.g. the national lockdown against Covid-19 in Spain) and growth policy (e.g. German Reunification).
'HIV Diffusion: Evidence from One Million Blood Tests', with Christian Aleman and Daniela Iorio
We mine 1 million HIV tests to empirically show how the HIV epidemic diffuses across demographic and economic groups. We show how the patterns of HIV infection change across stages of the epidemic.
'The Unequal Battle Against Infertility: Theory and Evidence from IVF Success and Drop-Out Rates', with Daniela Iorio, Fane Groes, Anna Houstecka and Mallory Leung [First Draft (Empirics only)]
Using administrative Danish data we show that more educated women have higher success in IVF outcomes. Using a structural model of IVF choice, we find that both the efficient management of the IVF protocol and psychological factors play a role. We discuss implications for the labor market.
Working Papers
'Countercyclical Elasticity of Substitution', with Dongya Koh [.pdf] [Online Appendix]
We empirically show that the short-run elasticity of substitution between capital and labor is countercyclical. In recessions, capital and labor are more substitutable than in expansions. This phenomenon contributes to resolve several labor-market puzzles. Interestingly, the cyclicality of elasticity is per se not a source of aggregate fluctuations, but it propagates the effects of other shocks.
'Labor Dynamics and Actual Telework Use during Covid-19: Skills, Occupations and Industries’
with Jean-Benoit Eyméoud, Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau and Etienne Wasmer [.pdf]
So actual telework use appears to no longer protect against employment losses (since 2020Q4). Basically, employment losses are becoming similar across skills/occ. groups, but telework use against Covid-19 is not. Cross-industry differences in employment losses persist during Covid-19 and remain large in 2021Q2.
'Why Is Food Consumption Inequality Underestimated? A Story of Vices and Children,’
with Yu Zheng [.pdf] [Online Appendix]
Yet another reason to rethink the use of stand-in households to measure inequality.
Manuscripts Under Revision for Resubmission
'How Much are SVARs with Long-Run Restrictions Missing without Cyclically Moving Factor Shares?' [.pdf]
Revise & Resubmit, Journal of Econometrics
'Education, HIV Status, and Risky Sexual Behavior: How Much Does the Stage of the HIV Epidemic Matter?', with Daniela Iorio [.pdf] [companion site]
(Reject-and-Resubmit) International Economic Review
'Land Misallocation and Productivity', with Chaoran Chen and Diego Restuccia [.pdf] [Online Appendix]
'The Costs of Consumption Smoothing: Less Schooling and Less Nutrition' (2019) [.pdf] [Online Appendix]
with Dongya Koh and Leandro de Magalhaes
Journal of Demographic Economics (Leading Article)
'Natural Resources and Global Misallocation' (2019) [.pdf]
with Alex Monge-Naranjo and Juan Sanchez
AEJ: Macroeconomics
'The Price of Growth: Consumption Insurance in China 1989-2009' (2018) [.pdf] [Online Appendix]
with Yu Zheng
AEJ: Macroeconomics (Leading Article)
'The Consumption, Income and Wealth of the Poorest: Cross-Sectional Facts of Rural and Urban Sub-Saharan Africa for Macroeconomists' (2018) [.pdf] [Online Appendix]
'The Relationship between Age at First Birth and Mother's Lifetime Earnings: Evidence from Danish Register Data', with Mallory Leung and Fane Groes [.pdf]
PLoS ONE (2016), 11(1), DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0146989
